4-week trend: good weather for February holidays?

Preliminary weather forecasts for the month of February describe a more or less rapid return of ocean disturbances with the arrival of rains and winds. But until now, this situation is no longer reliable, because the high pressure in the country seems to be resisting longer than expected by blocking the arrival of disturbances in the Atlantic. This development will be synonymous with the maintenance of calm and dry weather, a little cold and a little sunny in the mountains, at least for the first ten days of February.

Sunday January 30 to February 5: relatively calm and relatively cool weather

After the passage of a disturbance at the beginning of next week in the northeast of the country, with snowfall in the Vosges, the weather will be relatively calm again thanks to an anticyclone located near the Atlantic that gradually reaching the Scandinavian countries. . This situation will be favorable with increasingly dry weather from the west and the maintenance of a strong mistral and tramontane In the Southeast. This context will also help night frosts over the weekend, when evolution will favor the formation of clear night skies. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages in the southern half, while they will be seasonal in the northern half. Reliability is good about this general evolution.

Week of February 6 to 12: anticyclonic weather may continue

It seems today that the anticyclone is lasting longer than expected across Western and Northern Europe. This evolution is synonymous with maintaining dry weather, relatively sunny in the mountains, and likely cloudy and cloudy in the plains. In this meteorological context, temperatures remain seasonal but there are temperature fluctuations. In fact, it is common for a anticyclone in winter is usually accompanied by cold air in the plains and valleys while mildness prevails at altitude. These conditions will make it possible to benefit from the good weather in the mountains and the maintenance of the snowpack due to dry air and frost at night. This will be great news for the school holidays. However, the reliability of this scenario is moderate, because it cannot be ruled out that depressions over the Atlantic weaken the anticyclone and allow a disturbed southwesterly regime to enter, generating rain.

Sunday February 13 to 19: possible return of showers in the north

For the second week of the February holidays, the weather will be conditioned by the evolution of depressions that will move from the Atlantic to Northern Europe and the anticyclone in the south of the country. In this context, the general flow will be oriented in the west to southwest sector, allowing the passage of some more or less active disturbances. It will affect the northern half of the country, while the south will remain under the protection of the anticyclone. Temperatures will generally be warmer, rising above seasonal averages. However, this evolution has limited reliability due to doubts about the evolution and trajectory of depressions. The weather can therefore become more disturbed across the country, if the depressions descend further towards France, and calmer if the high pressure in the south pushes them back.

Week of February 20 to 26: more cold and gloomy?

After a few very mild days, the flow may move to the northwest sector and bring unstable air, but cooler. Snow will return to our mountains with significantly lower temperatures.

In summary, it should be noted that the weather scenario for this month of February has changed since our last forecast on Thursday January 20. It is now in favor of drier weather and perhaps less mild than the previous forecast. Anticyclonic conditions should prevail and the weather will be mild for vacationers, especially in the mountains.

This situation could lead to lower rainfall than expected, which is bad news for groundwater recharge. At the beginning of January, BRGM indicated that 78% of soil water is below normal. The situation is still worrying, as rain will be needed in the coming weeks to avoid too severe water restrictions this summer.

Due to these new forecasts, the trend is expressed in our seasonal forecasts for the month of February may change, with a month possibly lower than initially expected.