Risk of drought and heat wave for summer 2022 in France 06/05/2022

Drought risk seems marked for this summer of 2022 with more prevailing heat – Illustrative image by Water Information Center

A lack of rain already marked in France:

The first heat of summer will return to France next week, reminding us that summer is not too far away, starting from the weather calendar at the beginning of June.

In parallel, the lack of precipitation is more present in France with 8 of the last 9 months showing a deficit in terms of rainfallthe month of April 2022 that showed the anomaly of -35% in terms of rainfall accumulations.

Ratio to the 1981-2010 normal of cumulative rainfall in France from August 2021 to April 2022 – Meteo France

This situation is alarming for our country with more marked dryness of the soil in the North and East of the country with soil moisture indices that are often lower than 20 to 40% than usual, sometimes less than 50-60% in the Center West, in the North of the Massif Central and in the Southeast.

Soil moisture index in France on May 4, 2022 – Meteo France

With the driest season of the year approaching, the rainfall deficit is therefore generally marked and forecasts for the coming months do not seem encouraging.

June: Very hot and dry?

Temperature:

European and American models agree to imagine a particularly hot and summery month of June in France. The American model actually describes the temperature anomalies usually higher than +1°C in France as well as in Western Europe, prompting the risk of repeated heat waves in our country. This situation is also considered by the European model with anomalies of +1 to +2°C in France, confirming the very hot trend of this month of June 2022.

Temperature anomalies expected in France for the month of June 2022 (click the image to enlarge it) – CFS and ECMWF models

In such models, it is clear the heat can be more dominant throughout the month in our country with temperatures above normal. Therefore, the risk of a marked heat wave is present from the beginning of summer in our country.

Precipitation:

In addition to the heat, the lack of rain may continue in this month of June 2022 with long-term forecast models agreeing to a globally dry anomaly throughout the country. Small downside is possible, however, near reliefs according to the American CFS model with possible wetter weather, prompting risk of repeated stormswhich is not abnormal in this season.

Forecast of precipitation anomalies in France for the month of June 2022 (click the image to enlarge it) – CFS and ECMWF models

According to these maps, therefore it is one hour usually dry which should dominate the month of June with mainly anticyclonic conditions in our country, which will not prevent some temporary damage. However, the risk of thunderstorms will be monitored near the reliefs in the south of the country.

This type of modeling is not reassuring on the part of soil dryness that continues to increase over several weeks.. The trend should not be reversed for this month of June, especially since the likely marked heat should accentuate the effects of this dry season with faster evaporation of moisture when temperatures are high.

July: More heat and drought to increase…

Temperature:

Like last month, long-range forecast models agree for warmer-than-normal weather across the country.

It is on the side of the European ECMWF model that the temperature anomalies are the most marked, above +2°C in most of France and +2.5°C in the middle of the country. This causes really noticeable heat and the risk of large heat waves or even a long-term heat wave in our country.

If the American CFS model is less extreme, temperature anomalies remain generally positive across the country, generally reaching +0.5 to +1°C. There is no novelty for this model and vice versa above average summer heat.

Temperature anomalies expected in France for the month of July 2022 (click the image to enlarge it) – CFS and ECMWF models

Therefore, the height of summer should again be very hot, following the month of June. Here it is again, the danger of very strong repeated heat is significant with models raising fears of possible repeated and/or long-term heat waves.

Precipitation:

The European model ECMWF remains dry for this month of July at negative rainfall anomalies covering most of France. Again, no wetter-than-normal weather for this model with the drought intensifying in France.

For the CFS, the weather may become more unstable in northern Europe and by flooding northern France with positive precipitation anomalies, likely triggering the risk of repeated storms in these regions. Further south the weather will remain generally dry.

Forecast of precipitation anomalies in France for the month of July 2022 (click the image to enlarge it) – CFS and ECMWF models

There is no radical change therefore for this month of July. Although some situations (still in the minority) are possible to think of more instability in the north of the country, this is actually the dry season that should dominate most of France with drought of soils that can be particularly marked in many regions.

August: Still hot, still a bit dry

Temperature:

There are no major changes for this month of August a hot summer continues in France. Temperature anomalies remain positive in the two main seasonal forecast models and this across France.

Temperature anomalies expected in France for the month of August 2022 (click the image to enlarge it) – CFS and ECMWF models

So, the risk of heat waves or even heat waves will remain present in our country temperature that remains higher than normal (high in summer).

Precipitation:

The trend appears to be somewhat uncertain in precipitation considering the CFS model generally normal weather, although noticeably wetter depending on the sector. The European model is drier in the east of the country but common in the west.

Forecast of precipitation anomalies in France for the month of August 2022 (click the image to enlarge it) – CFS and ECMWF models

So it seems that a little instability can appear depending on the day there is the occurrence of possible thunderstorms, a classic item for the month of August. However, there were no major wet anomalies to report as the weather remained dry across the country.

Conclusion:

This summer of 2022 promises to be particularly hot according to the latest models for France. Due to permanent positive temperature anomalies, generally between +1 and +2°C, heat waves can prove to be frequent and sometimes strong with possible consecutive heat waves.. There is no cold summer in the program therefore and on the contrary a summer that is possibly warmer than usual.

On the rainfall side, the trend seems less encouraging and more worrisome. Drought may increase and become marked in many regions with Rainfall remaining mainly lacking in the continuation of previous months. This risk of drought really needs to be put under close monitoring in many sectors if the forecasts are confirmed in the coming weeks.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *