It is undoubtedly the most important event in the history of the diamond since its nationalization in 1945, and its partial privatization in 1990. Because those who believe that the Renaulution, announced by the drums and noise of Luca de Meo, have taken place on January 14, 2021, everything was wrong. In fact, the revolution, the real one, the great diamond night, will take place tomorrow morning. Because this will determine the future of the company, and its survival.
Previously, a rare meeting of investors, had no name, it was a meeting that was a little more important than the other. Now, even this type of summit is entitled to its marketing name. So go for it capital market day. And for once, the term “capital” was not seized, because the meeting in question could not be more important for Renault. Because Luca de Meo will try to convince the international elite of the merits of his idea: the division of Renault into two different boxes.
Horses and Ampere, old and new
On the one hand, Horse, the old company, must integrate the thermal activities of Renault (and maybe Dacia), on the other hand, Ampere will integrate the electrical activities of diamond (and certainly of Mobilize) . The idea of this split is clearly purely financial and the open day can be compared to a massive fundraiser. Of course, such a meeting is not an adventure where Luca de Meo goes around his guests with a basket that appeals to their kind hearts. The agreements have been prepared for months and should be ratified tomorrow, barring a last-minute surprise that is always possible.
Basically, Horse will be 50% owned by Chinese Geely and the Renault holding company. Saudi Aramco is also considered to join the funding round later. This new company, whose headquarters is not in France, should employ 10,000 people. So the good old rule is over. It is done “French social laboratory” as we like to call the RNUR (national management of the Renault factories) at the time when Jean-Paul Sartre would have agitated the majority of workers in 1970, standing on his oil can in Billancourt. What will the Horse models be? No idea. Will they be called Renault or Dacia or both? Not a single bit of information came out.
On the fairy side of electricity, Ampere’s creation is even more obscure than its cousin Horse. We only know that de Meo does not want to sell Renault and wants to value his share in the new box at around ten billion, while introducing funds that for the moment are very mysterious. As for the models, it is certainly the Renaults that will come like the R5 and the 4L that will come from this new structure. However, beyond the diamond and one or more investment funds, a third thief is invited to tomorrow’s wedding. This is the inevitable Japanese partner, the friend of more than two decades: Nissan.
Because the need for these major maneuvers is clearly related to the financial difficulties of the two groups. Nissan is struggling, and Renault’s 43% ownership of its capital is hardly enough to recover, as it was at the time when, thanks to Carlos Ghosn, the developing Japanese cleaned up the losses of the declining Frenchman. Moreover, the valuation of the diamond today is less than 10 billion euros, or 4 times less than Stellantis, and 10 times less than Tesla.
the Renault Nissan Alliance is dead
By the way, what is the future of the Alliance? He is not here. Only a future exchange of shares of 15% on both sides is mentioned, which agreement, minimalist, is far from succeeding. As for commonly used partnerships between French and Japanese platforms and engines, “we’ll see”indicate those trying to find a more likely agreement.
The result of this failure, and the impossibility of creating a large international group Renault – Nissan, is of course one of the reasons for the division of the two companies that Luca de Meo wanted to start. This split is even more urgent. Without an agreement, the important predictions of the previous administration are at risk of being carried out in the medium term.
Considering the promised investments in electrification cannot be done without raising funds, be it Chinese, Saudi or from American funds. This venture is one of the possible and possible solutions, except for a merger sale with another automotive group, which has always been rejected by Renault’s management, as has been done by the French government, since the State is still a shareholder with 15 % of diamond. . Suffice it to say that tonight, on the eve of this big meeting, Luca de Meo will definitely feel a certain pressure weighing on his shoulders.