La Solitaire du Figaro – Weather report for Tuesday 6 September 2022 – News
General Situation: This Tuesday, a stormy low of 990 hPa will move slowly southeast 180 miles west of Ireland. Anticyclone 1025 hPa west of Madeira extending in a ridge to the Vendée. Between the two, a strongly disturbed south-westerly regime trolling north and west Gascony. Wednesday, stormy low 995 hPa in southern Ireland. Ahead, a highly unstable and stormy southwesterly trolling regime in northern Gascony. Thursday, a stormy depression fills in at 1002 hPa towards the Celtic Sea. Fairly strong trolling regime of the western sector in northern Gascony.
In very variable wind conditions in terms of strength and direction, the entire fleet was able to progress for 12 hours at an average speed of between 5 and 6 knots, under a westerly swell that rose to 2m. Positioned between 43°50N and 44°15N, we found most boats 50 miles northeast of the next mark of the Farallones Islands, which they had to round by leaving it on starboard. However, 20 miles separate the southernmost from the northern one. Competitors are making progress this morning, leading a front that is slowly slicing away. On their port tack, under a 20-25 knot southerly wind, they continue their course on a moderate westerly course before turning, in the next few hours on starboard tack, towards the Farallones. Winds will pick up a notch, with gusts up to 35 knots under showers and possible gales. This period marks their return to an increasingly disturbed southwesterly regime, with seas becoming rough and waves of 3m. In this context, the frontrunners should round the mark at the end of the afternoon and then start a fast but difficult climb to the Bay of Biscay under the wind.
Port tack under 25 knots of average wind, and frequent gusts around 35 knots, the speed of progression will increase rapidly at night to exceed 13 knots, meaning double the currents. Under strong seas, with westerly waves of 3.5 m, they will maintain these difficult conditions overnight with sometimes average winds approaching 30 knots with gusts below gusts up to 40 knots. The southwesterly flow will force them to steer north at the end of the night, to maintain speed and a better angle of development.
Under the influence of the Irish stormy depression that will slowly move towards the Celtic Sea, the active train from southwest to west will continue in the Bay of Biscay and more specifically in the north. With an average wind down to around 20 knots, skippers should jibe mainly in the morning to head east towards the finish in Saint-Nazaire. If the sea is calm, the wind and weather conditions will remain very unstable and contribute to a risk of violent storm surge. The evolution of the latter is however difficult to model in this type of situation, since the most violent of them are almost very localized. In this context, and despite frequent wind gusts around 30 knots, the risk of some up to 40 knots cannot be ruled out. The high speed of development should allow the first to arrive at night, and the last at night.
As the depression approaches the Celtic Sea, the tail will turn westward over northern Gascony. This will maintain a very turbulent west-southwesterly current of around 20 knots, with gusts under squalls that could reach up to 35 knots.
Very cloudy and stormy. Heavy thunderstorms in the morning easing in the afternoon.
Wind: southwest 30 km/h, gusting 60-80 km/h until 2 pm decreasing to 40 km/h by the end of the afternoon.
Temperature: 19° to 21°C
Chance of showers and thunderstorms: 80%
Risk of morning showers. Sunny, then cloudy in the afternoon with heavy showers.
Wind: southwest to west 30 km/h, possible gusts 60 km/h in the afternoon.
Temperature: 18° to 22°C
Chance of rain: 70%
Very cloudy with heavy rain in the morning and risk of thunderstorms.
Wind: west-southwest 30 km/h, gusts 50 to 70 km/h in the morning
Temperature: 17° to 21°C
Chance of rain: 80%
“For more information, visit the website https://figaronautisme.meteoconsult.fr/
Pascal Scaviner, METEO CONSULT